Expert convergence on the question of AI consciousness is unlikely in the near term.

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• We hypothesize that AI consciousness may be realized in the near term if AI capabilities continue to develop, given that researchers have intentionally reproduced computational features associated with human consciousness.hypothesis0.846
  Motivates urgency of the assessment method
• Overlapping consensus on AI-consciousness-related policies is achievable even under persistent disagreement about AI consciousness itself.claim0.844
  Key positive claim about the tractability of the political challenge via deliberation.
• Disagreement about AI consciousness is likely to arise and persist in society due to emotional bonds, theoretical considerations, and lack of expert consensus.claim0.830
  Central empirical-sociological claim motivating the paper's inquiry.
• Consciousness in AI is best assessed by drawing on neuroscientific theories of consciousness.claim0.823
  Central methodological claim of the paper.
• Given that it may already be possible to build AI systems that possess many of the indicators, some near-future AI systems will be plausible candidates for consciousness.claim0.822
  Forward-looking assessment of how soon the method's results may have major ethical implications
• Will some AI systems be conscious in the near future?question0.822
  Key empirical question for the consciousness route.
• While some researchers suggest that conscious AI is close at hand, others, including me, believe it remains far away and might not be possible at all. But even if unlikely, it is unwise to dismiss the possibility altogether.quote0.820
  Anil Seth's cautionary statement, quoted in §1.1.
• Successful deliberation about AI consciousness requires: seeking overlapping consensus, openness to reasonable compromise, sustaining justified democratic hope, and meeting the burden of recognition.claim0.818
  The paper's concluding four-part synthesis of desiderata for navigating AI consciousness disagreement.