The single-paper cohort norm will dissolve as benchmark fragmentation accelerates; category ownership becomes defensible by late 2026.

{
  "doc": "/Users/antonborzov/Documents/Claude/work/AboutBlank/strategy/2026-05-12_room-to-play-in-eval-cohort.md",
  "claim": "The single-paper cohort norm will dissolve as benchmark fragmentation accelerates; category ownership becomes defensible by late 2026.",
  "horizon": "2026-12-31",
  "section": "Why this fits the cohort moment specifically",
  "category": "manifold-shift",
  "confidence": 0.75,
  "depends_on": [],
  "extracted_at": 1778899700,
  "extracted_by": "haiku-4-5",
  "status_check_log": [],
  "evidence_threshold": "PROPOSED: 5+ cohort players (Mercor, Patronus, Martian, Braintrust, others) have each shipped unique benchmarks; Mercor Legal Agent Benchmark cited as exemplar"
}