Manifold-steering prototype (one invocation mode, Witness or equivalent) ships as code repo + paper within 90 days.

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• If manifold-steering prototype shows positive results, About Blank will commit to Company shape (not Lab) at 12-month fork decision.prediction0.830
• Manifold-aware steering implementation becomes the delegable boundary for Company shape, achievable in 4-week prototype.prediction0.808
• Manifold steering (Wurgaft et al) will become the standard framework for operationalizing concept-space design in mechanistic interpretability within 18 months.prediction0.799
• Manifold-aware steering is genuinely new IP that frontier labs cannot ship as easily as assumed.claim0.784
• Manifold-aware steering for contemplative-mode UX is genuinely novel IP that frontier labs will not easily replicate.prediction0.761
• Manifold-aware steering is non-trivial IP requiring geometric analysis, not a system-prompt implementation.claim0.756
• ReflectiveBench v1 (static page, 3 dimensions, 20 models, peer-scoring protocol) ships within 45 days.prediction0.755
• About Blank will add P5 (Company-shape probe) and P6 (ReflectiveBench-as-glue spec) to PRONGS.md within 7 days.prediction0.739