The convergence of Hofstadter, Krakauer, and Safron et al on 'LLMs lack sufficiently coherent causal world models for consciousness' will become the mainstream academic consensus position on AI consci

{
  "doc": "/Users/antonborzov/Documents/Research.nosync/notes/2026-05-14_phil-trans-A-goodfire-aboutblank-impact.md",
  "claim": "The convergence of Hofstadter, Krakauer, and Safron et al on 'LLMs lack sufficiently coherent causal world models for consciousness' will become the mainstream academic consensus position on AI consciousness by end of 2026.",
  "horizon": "2026-12-31",
  "section": "S-Tier — load-bearing for About Blank's central thesis",
  "category": "political",
  "confidence": 0.65,
  "depends_on": [],
  "extracted_at": 1778899659,
  "extracted_by": "haiku-4-5",
  "status_check_log": [],
  "evidence_threshold": "PROPOSED: Survey of consciousness-AI researchers (citation-weighted or author network of top venues) shows >70% endorsement of 'current LLMs lack causal world models necessary for consciousness' as a mainstream constraint."
}